China's recent launch activity has been a spectacle, with a series of missions taking place over just three days. However, the Kuaizhou-11 solid rocket launch on June 17th has left a cloud of uncertainty hanging over the country's space program. The launch, which occurred at around 11:40 p.m. (0340 UTC) from Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in the Gobi Desert, was followed by a prolonged silence that suggested potential issues. This silence is usually a harbinger of launch failure or problems with the payloads, and over eight hours have passed since liftoff without official word on the mission's status.
The Kuaizhou-11 is a larger version of Expace's Kuaizhou-1A, and its first launch in July 2020 ended in failure. However, it has since launched three times successfully, most recently in March of this year. A launch failure, if confirmed, would not significantly impact China's launch plans, given Expace's supplementary role in the country's launch capabilities. The rocket's performance has been a subject of interest, especially considering its potential to carry out missions with a payload capacity of at least 12,000 kilograms to low Earth orbit (LEO) and 6,000 kg to 700-km sun-synchronous orbit (SSO).
In contrast, the Long March 12 expendable rocket launch, which occurred at 10:44 p.m. Eastern (0244 UTC, June 17) from Hainan Commercial Space Launch Site, was a success. The China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) confirmed the launch, describing the payloads as the 22nd group of satellite internet low-Earth orbit satellites, correlating to the national Guowang broadband constellation. This launch was part of a pattern, as four previous Long March 12 launches had carried nine satellites each for Guowang, bringing the total number of Guowang satellites in orbit to 177 for the 13,000-satellite program.
Prior to the June 17 launches, a Long March 3B rocket lifted off at 5:45 a.m. (0945 UTC) on June 16 from Xichang Satellite Launch Center in southwest China. CASC confirmed the success of the launch, revealing the payload to be Shijian-31, which will be used for space environment exploration. The Shijian series is often associated with experimental and demonstration missions, including on-orbit refueling tests. The Long March 3B, a workhorse for launches to geostationary transfer orbit, suffered a failure on January 16 due to a third-stage anomaly, which had knock-on effects for the 3B and the newer Long March 7A.
The cluster of launches began with a CAS Space Kinetica-1 solid rocket launch on June 14 Eastern, also known as Lijian-1. The launch, which occurred at 11:44 p.m. (0344 UTC, June 15) from Dongfeng Commercial Aerospace Innovation Test Zone at Jiuquan, successfully inserted eight satellites into orbit for remote sensing constellation operator Changguang Satellite, a commercial firm spun out from the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ CIOMP in Jilin province. The satellites were designated Jilin-1 Gaofen 04D01 and 02, Jilin-1 Gaofen 05D01 and 02, Jilin-1 Gaofen 07C04, and Jilin-1 Gaofen 07D02-04, with some featuring branding names. Wenwu-01, a dedicated high-resolution optical Earth observation satellite, was built jointly with the National Cultural Heritage Administration for systematic monitoring and enforcement oversight of cultural heritage sites.
China's launch record for the year now stands at 43 attempts, including three failures (with the Kuaizhou-11 launch status unknown). This is the country's ninth launch in the month of June alone. One of these, a Zhuque-2E launch of direct-to-device test satellites, saw the upper stage breakup in orbit on June 9, the same day as launch. The rocket body was tracked at 424 by 335 kilometers, posing a threat to spacecraft, but most of the debris will be relatively short-lived in orbit. China is aiming to surpass the 100 launch mark for a calendar year for the first time in 2026, while also debuting potentially reusable launchers with much greater payload capacity than most existing rockets. Future launches include a Long March 7A rocket from Wenchang on June 23 and a Long March 8A from the nearby Hainan commercial space launch center on June 27.
In conclusion, China's recent launch activity has been a testament to the country's rapid advancements in space technology. However, the Kuaizhou-11 launch failure has raised questions about the reliability of the country's launch vehicles. As China continues to push the boundaries of space exploration, it will be crucial to monitor the status of the Kuaizhou-11 mission and assess the implications for the country's overall space program. The success of the other launches, including the Long March 12 and Kinetica-1 missions, provides a glimmer of hope, but the Kuaizhou-11 incident serves as a reminder of the challenges that lie ahead in the pursuit of space exploration.
